Who Is Minding the Shop?

But who is responsible for making sure the entire end-to-end supply chain works?

Supply chain resilience requires seeing the whole system – before individual
problems collide and become a crisis.

California Petroleum: A Case Study

The Entire End-to-End Supply Chain Is Under Pressure

California isn’t facing one isolated petroleum problem. Multiple links in the petroleum supply chain
are being disrupted or constrained simultaneously.

We Didn’t Replace the Supply Chain. We Broke It.

AFTER REFINERY CLOSURES

Replacement Fuel > Tanker > Port > Terminal >
Storage > Pipeline/Truck > Customer

3.85 BILLION GALLONS

of annual in-state fuel production capacity

Replacement fuel still has to move through marine unloading capacity, terminals, storage, pipelines,
blending, loading racks, trucks, drivers, and final distribution.
Supply chains ron on proven, not theoretical capacity

Fuel Is Critical Infrastructure

Fuel supports military installations, ports, aviation, agriculture, emergency response, hospitals,
manufacturing, and freight transportation. Petroleum also supports chemicals, plastics, coatings,
adhesives, asphalt, fertilizers, and other manufacturing materials.

A petroleum disruption can become a manufacturing, transportation, food, and family prosperity problem.

This Isn’t Just About Fuel

No One Is Minding the Shop

Critical supply chains are divided among companies, industries, regulators, agencies,
transportation providers, and levels of government. Each may understand its own part
of the system.

Decisions get made in silos.

Organizations work from different data.

Capacity isn’t validated before major changes occur.

Problems in one link create unintended consequences somewhere else.

Stakeholders don’t come together until the disruption is already a crisis.

What if one independent body were responsible for identifying these risks before they collided?

The National Supply Chain Council

A “Fed” for America’s Supply Chain

The National Supply Chain Council (NSCC) is a concept for an independent, nonpartisan body
bringing together supply chain experts, government, industry, labor, and academia.
Its purpose would be to identify emerging risks, establish a common set of facts, and bring
the right stakeholders together to resolve capacity constraints before they become national
crises.

The NSCC would not control markets or run private supply chains.

Visibility. Foresight. Coordination. Expertise.

Capitalism Without the Chaos

The National Supply Chain Council would not change our system of capitalism or tell private
companies what to produce, buy, or sell. Markets would still determine supply, demand, investment,
and competition.

The goal isn’t to manage capitalism. It’s to remove unnecessary chaos from capitalism.

Better visibility, common facts, and earlier coordination can help markets function more effectively
– without replacing the marke

National MRP

We Already Know How to Do This

Manufacturers have used Material Requirements Planning (MRP) for decades to connect
demand, inventory, supply, capacity, and lead time – helping identify a future
shortage before they run out.

So why aren’t we applying the same thinking to the critical products and infrastructure our
country depends upon?

A National MRP System

Manufacturers have used Material Requirements Planning (MRP) for decades to connect
demand, inventory, supply, capacity, and lead time – helping identify a future
shortage before they run out.

DEMAND

INVENTORY

SUPPLY

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

TRANSPORTATION CAPACITY

LEAD TIMES

CRITICAL DEPENDENCIES

EARLY WARNING

Not to tell companies what to make. Not to centrally plan the economy.

To know when the math doesn’t work.

Stress-Test the Supply Chain

Once we understand demand and capacity, we can ask what happens if a refinery closes, a
port shuts down, a critical supplier disappears, war interrupts a major route, demand
suddenly doubles, or replacement capacity takes years.

That is how businesses manage risk. Critical national supply chains deserve the same discipline.

From National MRP to Global MRP

Critical supply chains don’t stop at national borders. A National MRP capability could
establish visibility into America’s aggregate demand, supply, inventory, production capacity,
transportation capacity, and critical dependencies. Over time, trusted information shared among
trading partners could expand that visibility.

The goal is not to control global commerce. The goal is to see problems coming.

How It Could Work

Manufacturers have used Material Requirements Planning (MRP) for decades to connect
demand, inventory, supply, capacity, and lead time – helping identify a future
shortage before they run out.

Someone is responsible for seeing the whole system.

Demand + Inventory + Supply + Capacity + Transportation + Lead Time

What could disrupt the system?

Identify the gap before it becomes a shortage.

Industry + Government + Labor + Transportation + Academia

Solve the problem while there is still time.

Prevent the crisis instead of managing the consequences.

Supply Chains Respond to Reality

Capacity. Demand. Inventory. Infrastructure. Lead Time. Geography. Preparation.

These aren’t political positions. They’re supply chain realities. Resilience begins with
establishing a common set of facts and understanding the consequences of a decision across the
entire supply chain before the decision is made.

Protection Is the Foundation of Prosperity

A resilient economy shouldn’t have to wait for empty shelves, factory shutdowns, fuel shortages,
emergency waivers, or price spikes to discover that an essential supply chain was vulnerable.